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Washington State Institute for Public Policy

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Publications

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Commercial Aviation in Washington: A Review of Forecasts, Policies, and Technologies

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Morgan Spangler, Micah McFeely, Cory Briar, Liqiang Liu - December 2025

The Puget Sound area has seen significant growth in demand for air travel, putting pressure on current facilities. Forecasts from a recent study predict a substantial expected gap in service for the area. In addition, commercial aviation has a significant impact on the environment. The 2024 Washington State Legislature directed WSIPP to examine the passenger activity and air cargo forecasts in the Puget Sound Regional Council’s study, conduct a review of strategies aimed at reducing air travel demand, and investigate technologies addressing the environmental impacts of air travel.

In our assessment of the forecasts, we find evidence to suggest that both the passenger activity and the air cargo forecast overestimate the actual aviation activity in the Puget Sound area.

In our review of strategies to combat demand for air travel, we find the literature on strategies intended to reduce demand is sparse and often methodologically fraught. The policy changes that may lead to a reduction in demand typically do so by increasing the cost of air travel or limiting the supply. High-speed rail has also been shown to decrease demand in some countries as a substitute for air travel, though none of the papers study this in a U.S. context.

In the review of technologies to combat the environmental impact of air travel, we detail several technologies that have the potential to make air travel less impactful on the environment, including innovative airplane designs, electrification of key pieces in the commercial aviation system, and sustainable aviation fuels. We also discuss challenges to note when considering the feasibility of implementing these technologies in Washington State.

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