|Benefit-Cost Summary Statistics Per Participant|
|Taxpayers||($5,965)||Benefits minus costs||($38,528)|
|Participants||$0||Benefit to cost ratio||n/a|
|Others||($38,564)||Chance the program will produce|
|Indirect||$15||benefits greater than the costs||0 %|
|Net program cost||$5,985|
|Benefits minus cost||($38,528)|
|Detailed Monetary Benefit Estimates Per Participant|
|Benefits from changes to:1||Benefits to:|
|Adjustment for deadweight cost of program||$0||$0||$0||$3,025||$3,025|
|Detailed Annual Cost Estimates Per Participant|
|Annual cost||Year dollars||Summary|
|Program costs||($5,640)||2012||Present value of net program costs (in 2017 dollars)||$5,985|
|Comparison costs||$0||2012||Cost range (+ or -)||10 %|
|Estimated Cumulative Net Benefits Over Time (Non-Discounted Dollars)|
|The graph above illustrates the estimated cumulative net benefits per-participant for the first fifty years beyond the initial investment in the program. We present these cash flows in non-discounted dollars to simplify the “break-even” point from a budgeting perspective. If the dollars are negative (bars below $0 line), the cumulative benefits do not outweigh the cost of the program up to that point in time. The program breaks even when the dollars reach $0. At this point, the total benefits to participants, taxpayers, and others, are equal to the cost of the program. If the dollars are above $0, the benefits of the program exceed the initial investment.|
|Meta-Analysis of Program Effects|
|Outcomes measured||Treatment age||No. of effect sizes||Treatment N||Adjusted effect sizes(ES) and standard errors(SE) used in the benefit - cost analysis||Unadjusted effect size (random effects model)|
|First time ES is estimated||Second time ES is estimated|
|Crime elasticity: property||28||n/a||0||-0.351||0.095||30||-0.246||0.029||30||0.000||0.001|
Barnoski, R.P., & Washington State Institute for Public Policy. (2004). Sentences for adult felons in Washington, options to address prison overcrowding: Pt. 2 (recidivism analyses). Olympia, WA: Washington State Institute for Public Policy.
Blumstein, A., & Wallman, J. (2006). The crime drop in America. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Bushway, S.D., & Owens, E.G. (2013). Framing punishment: Incarceration, recommended sentences, and recidivism. Journal of Law and Economics, 56(2), 301-331.
Drago, F., Galbiati, R., & Vertova, P. (2009). The deterrent effects of prison: Evidence from a natural experiment. The Journal of Political Economy, 117(2), 257-280.
Drake, E.K., Barnoski, R., & Aos, S. (2009). Increased earned release from prison: Impacts of a 2003 law on recidivism and crime costs, revised (Doc. No. 09-04-1201). Olympia: Washington State Institute for Public Policy.
Gottfredson, D.M., & National Institute of Justice (U.S.). (1999). Effects of judges' sentencing decisions on criminal careers. Washington, DC: U.S. Dept. of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, National Institute of Justice.
Johnson, R., & Raphael, S. (2012). How much crime reduction does the marginal prisoner buy?. Journal of Law and Economics, 55(2), 275-310.
Kuziemko, I. (2013). How should inmates be released from prison? An assessment of parole versus fixed-sentence regimes. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 128(1), 371-424.
Levitt, S.D. (1996). The effect of prison population size on crime rates: Evidence from prison overcrowding litigation. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 111(2), 319-351.
Meade, B., Steiner, B., Makarios, M., & Travis, L. (2012). Estimating a dose-response relationship between time served in prison and recidivism. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, DOI: 10.1177/0022427812458928.
Oliver, B.E. (2011). Recidivism: A multi-level explanation. St. Louis, Mo: University of Missouri, St. Louis.
Snodgrass, G.M., Blokland, A.A.J., Haviland, A., Nieuwbeerta, P., & Nagin, D.S. (2011). Does the time cause the crime? An examination of the relationship between time served and reoffending in the Netherlands. Criminology, 49(4), 1149-1194.
Spelman, W. (2005). Jobs or jails? The crime drop in Texas. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 24(1), 133-165.
Spelman, W. (2013). Prisons and crime, backwards in high heels. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, DOI: 10.1007/s10940-013-9193-2.