|Benefit-Cost Summary Statistics Per Participant|
|Taxpayers||$285||Benefits minus costs||$866|
|Participants||$437||Benefit to cost ratio||$6.42|
|Others||$307||Chance the program will produce|
|Indirect||($4)||benefits greater than the costs||85 %|
|Net program cost||($160)|
|Benefits minus cost||$866|
|Detailed Monetary Benefit Estimates Per Participant|
|Benefits from changes to:1||Benefits to:|
|Labor market earnings associated with high school graduation||$205||$451||$207||$0||$863|
|Health care associated with smoking||$111||$31||$115||$56||$313|
|Costs of higher education||($32)||($48)||($14)||($16)||($110)|
|Mortality associated with smoking||$1||$2||$0||$37||$40|
|Adjustment for deadweight cost of program||$0||$0||$0||($80)||($80)|
|Detailed Annual Cost Estimates Per Participant|
|Annual cost||Year dollars||Summary|
|Program costs||$53||2015||Present value of net program costs (in 2017 dollars)||($160)|
|Comparison costs||$0||2015||Cost range (+ or -)||30 %|
|Estimated Cumulative Net Benefits Over Time (Non-Discounted Dollars)|
|The graph above illustrates the estimated cumulative net benefits per-participant for the first fifty years beyond the initial investment in the program. We present these cash flows in non-discounted dollars to simplify the “break-even” point from a budgeting perspective. If the dollars are negative (bars below $0 line), the cumulative benefits do not outweigh the cost of the program up to that point in time. The program breaks even when the dollars reach $0. At this point, the total benefits to participants, taxpayers, and others, are equal to the cost of the program. If the dollars are above $0, the benefits of the program exceed the initial investment.|
|Meta-Analysis of Program Effects|
|Outcomes measured||Treatment age||No. of effect sizes||Treatment N||Adjusted effect sizes(ES) and standard errors(SE) used in the benefit - cost analysis||Unadjusted effect size (random effects model)|
|First time ES is estimated||Second time ES is estimated|
|Sales to minors (tobacco)^||12||4||123||-0.324||0.153||12||n/a||n/a||n/a||-0.709||0.001|
|Smoking in high school||12||2||2261||-0.047||0.035||15||-0.047||0.035||18||-0.145||0.001|
|Smoking before end of middle school||12||2||2882||-0.017||0.028||12||-0.017||0.028||14||-0.051||0.067|
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