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Washington State Institute for Public Policy
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Children's Aid Society—Carrera

Public Health & Prevention: Community-based
Benefit-cost methods last updated December 2019.  Literature review updated April 2012.
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Children’s Aid Society—Carrera Project provides after-school activities five days a week for teens age 13 and older. Program activities include Job Club (students receive stipends and employment experience), academic assistance (available every day), classes in family life and sexuality, an arts component, and individual sports one could continue throughout life. In addition, the program provides mental health care, medical care, and full dental care.
For an overview of WSIPP's Benefit-Cost Model, please see this guide. The estimates shown are present value, life cycle benefits and costs. All dollars are expressed in the base year chosen for this analysis (2018). The chance the benefits exceed the costs are derived from a Monte Carlo risk analysis. The details on this, as well as the economic discount rates and other relevant parameters are described in our Technical Documentation.
Benefit-Cost Summary Statistics Per Participant
Benefits to:
Taxpayers $2,105 Benefits minus costs ($14,164)
Participants $5,167 Benefit to cost ratio $0.10
Others $3,566 Chance the program will produce
Indirect ($9,231) benefits greater than the costs 29 %
Total benefits $1,607
Net program cost ($15,771)
Benefits minus cost ($14,164)

^WSIPP’s benefit-cost model does not monetize this outcome.

Meta-analysis is a statistical method to combine the results from separate studies on a program, policy, or topic in order to estimate its effect on an outcome. WSIPP systematically evaluates all credible evaluations we can locate on each topic. The outcomes measured are the types of program impacts that were measured in the research literature (for example, crime or educational attainment). Treatment N represents the total number of individuals or units in the treatment group across the included studies.

An effect size (ES) is a standard metric that summarizes the degree to which a program or policy affects a measured outcome. If the effect size is positive, the outcome increases. If the effect size is negative, the outcome decreases. See Estimating Program Effects Using Effect Sizes for additional information.

Adjusted effect sizes are used to calculate the benefits from our benefit cost model. WSIPP may adjust effect sizes based on methodological characteristics of the study. For example, we may adjust effect sizes when a study has a weak research design or when the program developer is involved in the research. The magnitude of these adjustments varies depending on the topic area.

WSIPP may also adjust the second ES measurement. Research shows the magnitude of some effect sizes decrease over time. For those effect sizes, we estimate outcome-based adjustments which we apply between the first time ES is estimated and the second time ES is estimated. We also report the unadjusted effect size to show the effect sizes before any adjustments have been made. More details about these adjustments can be found in our Technical Documentation.

Meta-Analysis of Program Effects
Outcomes measured Treatment age Primary or secondary participant No. of effect sizes Treatment N Adjusted effect sizes(ES) and standard errors(SE) used in the benefit - cost analysis Unadjusted effect size (random effects model)
First time ES is estimated Second time ES is estimated
ES SE Age ES SE Age ES p-value
14 Primary 1 485 -0.035 0.207 17 -0.035 0.207 27 -0.035 0.867
14 Primary 1 143 0.078 0.225 18 0.078 0.225 18 0.078 0.728
14 Primary 1 242 -0.314 0.213 18 n/a n/a n/a -0.314 0.141
14 Primary 1 242 -0.227 0.213 17 n/a n/a n/a -0.227 0.287
14 Primary 1 242 -0.055 0.213 18 -0.055 0.213 18 -0.055 0.797
1 Secondary 1 242 -0.055 0.213 18 -0.055 0.213 18 -0.055 0.797
14 Primary 1 485 -0.121 0.204 17 -0.121 0.204 18 -0.121 0.552
1In addition to the outcomes measured in the meta-analysis table, WSIPP measures benefits and costs estimated from other outcomes associated with those reported in the evaluation literature. For example, empirical research demonstrates that high school graduation leads to reduced crime. These associated measures provide a more complete picture of the detailed costs and benefits of the program.

2“Others” includes benefits to people other than taxpayers and participants. Depending on the program, it could include reductions in crime victimization, the economic benefits from a more educated workforce, and the benefits from employer-paid health insurance.

3“Indirect benefits” includes estimates of the net changes in the value of a statistical life and net changes in the deadweight costs of taxation.
Detailed Monetary Benefit Estimates Per Participant
Affected outcome: Resulting benefits:1 Benefits accrue to:
Taxpayers Participants Others2 Indirect3 Total
Crime Criminal justice system $254 $0 $634 $127 $1,014
High school graduation Labor market earnings associated with high school graduation $2,395 $5,626 $3,081 ($1,198) $9,905
Costs of higher education ($548) ($465) ($153) ($274) ($1,440)
Teen births under age 18 Public assistance $2 ($1) $0 $1 $2
Subtotals $2,103 $5,160 $3,562 ($1,344) $9,481
From secondary participant
Teen births (second generation) Labor market earnings associated with high school graduation $3 $7 $4 ($2) $13
K-12 grade repetition $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Costs of higher education ($1) ($1) $0 $0 ($2)
Subtotals $3 $7 $4 ($2) $12
Program cost Adjustment for deadweight cost of program $0 $0 $0 ($7,886) ($7,886)
Totals $2,105 $5,167 $3,566 ($9,231) $1,607
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Detailed Annual Cost Estimates Per Participant
Annual cost Year dollars Summary
Program costs $4,000 2002 Present value of net program costs (in 2018 dollars) ($15,771)
Comparison costs $0 2002 Cost range (+ or -) 10 %
The effects of this program are based on three years of participation. Annual per-participant cost from Philliber et al. (2002). Preventing Pregnancy and Improving Health Care Access Among Teenagers: An Evaluation of the Children's Aid Society-Carrera Program. Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health, 34(5), 251.
The figures shown are estimates of the costs to implement programs in Washington. The comparison group costs reflect either no treatment or treatment as usual, depending on how effect sizes were calculated in the meta-analysis. The cost range reported above reflects potential variation or uncertainty in the cost estimate; more detail can be found in our Technical Documentation.
Benefits Minus Costs
Benefits by Perspective
Taxpayer Benefits by Source of Value
Benefits Minus Costs Over Time (Cumulative Discounted Dollars)
The graph above illustrates the estimated cumulative net benefits per-participant for the first fifty years beyond the initial investment in the program. We present these cash flows in discounted dollars. If the dollars are negative (bars below $0 line), the cumulative benefits do not outweigh the cost of the program up to that point in time. The program breaks even when the dollars reach $0. At this point, the total benefits to participants, taxpayers, and others, are equal to the cost of the program. If the dollars are above $0, the benefits of the program exceed the initial investment.

Citations Used in the Meta-Analysis

Philliber, S., Kaye, J., & Herrling, S. (2001). The national evaluation of the Children's Aid Society Carrera-Model program to prevent teen pregnancy. Accord, NY: Philliber Research Associates.

Philliber, S., Kaye, J. W., Herrling, S., & West, E. (2002). Preventing pregnancy and improving health care access among teenagers: An evaluation of the Children's Aid Society-Carrera program. Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health, 34(5), 244-251.